IT, Sysadmin & MSP 2.90Simmering report-01-064

Startup idea: Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs

PDFs vanish from a network share and the audit log only shows the same user and laptop with 'PID 4 (System)'. Standard logs can't explain what happened.

r/sysadmin · Sep 14, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 · 47 upvotes

PDFs exported from Excel to a network drive share…

Read the thread · 45 comments

Report 01 · last verified Oct 14, 2026.

Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs is a startup idea for sysadmins. PDFs vanish from a network share and the audit log only shows the same user and laptop with 'PID 4 (System)'. Standard logs can't explain what happened. A thread in r/sysadmin drew 47 upvotes and 45 comments between Sep 14, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026. People get by with Windows Event Viewer, Netwrix, and Varonis, and that still leaves this job open. Hotness is 2.90, Simmering. Real but moderate pain. Some willingness to pay. The thread drew 47 upvotes and 45 comments. Gaps in existing tools. Needs integrations or data deals. A first version is a hard build, about 5+ weeks, priced between $50 and $199 a month and charged as a B2B subscription. The pain, the source, the alternatives, the scope notes, and the questions on this page are free to read and free to build from. The agent starter prompt is the paid part. The first slice is on the page. One credit unlocks the rest, to paste into a coding agent, download as Markdown, or send as a private link.

Who has it

Sysadmins.

What people use now

3 options, and the gap between them.

01

Windows Event Viewer

02

Netwrix

03

Varonis

The gap · 3/5

Real gaps in the existing tools.

Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs is built for the part these leave undone.

A way through

A deep file-event forensics tool that enriches Windows logs with context (cloud sync, antivirus, scripts) to explain 'system' deletions.

MVP scope

The first version, in 6 weeks.

Build
Hard
Ships as
Desktop app
  1. 00 Goal

    The one job

    Explain 'PID 4 System' deletions by correlating cloud sync, antivirus and scripts with audit events.

  2. 01 Weeks 1–2

    The core

    Enrich Windows file-event logs with context: cloud sync, antivirus, scripts.

  3. 02 Weeks 3–4

    The follow-through

    Explain the deletions logged as 'system'.

  4. 03 Weeks 5–6

    How it ships

    As a desktop app that runs on the user's own computer. AI helps, but the core job works without it.

  5. — Not in v1

    Left out on purpose

    Replacing Windows Event Viewer. Version one does the one job above and stops there.

How it could charge

The business model, at a glance.

Buyer
CompaniesA business with a budget pays
Region
Global

Hotness

Why it scores 2.90.

2.90 of 5 · Simmering
Pain25% 3/5
Willingness to pay20% 3/5
Demand20% 2/5
Competition gap15% 3/5
Ease of build10% 2/5
Recency10% 5/5

Real but moderate pain. Some willingness to pay. The thread drew 47 upvotes and 45 comments. Gaps in existing tools. Needs integrations or data deals.

47 upvotes 45 comments r/sysadmin Sep 14, 2026 – Oct 14, 2026 verified Oct 14, 2026 Thread ↗

Weights: pain 25%, willingness to pay 20%, demand 20%, gap 15%, ease 10%, recency 10%. Recency is recomputed every build. The source report’s 1–10 score is not shown.

Market size · estimate

How big this could get

A bottom-up estimate for Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs: real customer counts × a realistic price. Not a forecast.

TAM Total addressable

$119M a year

99,000 orgs · 30% of US network and systems administrators

SAM Serviceable

$24M a year

20,000 orgs · English-speaking, online

SOM Obtainable in 3 years

$240K a year

200 orgs · 1% of the reachable segment in three years

What that means

200 orgs at $100/mo = $240K ARR

Low confidence
How we estimated this
  1. Base: 331,500 US network and systems administrators.
  2. Has the problem: 30% (assume 30% run Windows file servers with audit needs).
  3. Revenue per org: $1,200 per year ($99/mo).
  4. Reachable: 20% (English-speaking, online).
  5. Three-year capture: 1% of the reachable segment.

TAM = customers with the problem × revenue per customer. SAM = the part an early product can reach. SOM = a conservative three-year share of SAM. Bars use a log scale. Shares marked “assume” are our judgment, not measured.

Source: BLS Occupational Outlook, 2024

Take it to a build

Build Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs with an agent, or with us.

Agent starter prompt

$9.99 / 1 credit

A full PRD written for a coding agent: scope, data model, screens, edge cases, and the first week of tasks for this idea.

  • Copy it straight into Claude Code, Cursor, or Codex.
  • Download it as a .md file you keep.
  • Send your bot a private link that refreshes every seven days.
prd.md
# Agent starter prompt: Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs

You are a senior product engineer. Build only the product described in this document. If a detail is missing, choose the smallest option and write it down in the README. Do not invent a second product, a marketplace of marketplaces, or a growth hack.

## Product
Name: Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs
One line: Explain 'PID 4 System' deletions by correlating cloud sync, antivirus and scripts with audit events.
Shape: Desktop app
AI stance: AI-assisted
Region for v1: Global
Hotness (context only, not a requirement): 2.90 (simmering). Real but moderate pain; some willingness to pay; thread engagement 47▲/45💬 (demand 2/5); gaps in existing tools; needs integrations or data deals.

## Problem
PDFs vanish from a network share and the audit log only shows the same user and laptop with 'PID 4 (System)'. Standard logs can't explain what happened.

Who feels it: Sysadmins.

The first slice is above. The rest unlocks for 1 credit and is never in this page’s HTML.

Credits work on both sites. On Business Ideas to Build the same credit unlocks the business plan and growth playbook for Forensic File-Deletion Tracing Beyond Windows Logs.

Or we build it

Your first version, shipped by our team.

A working product in your repo, built from this PRD. You own the code.

$10k2 weeks
$15k5 working days

Questions

Is this idea already taken?

People already use Windows Event Viewer, Netwrix, Varonis. Those options do not do the job in the solution above. The idea is free to build. Nothing here is an exclusive claim.

How hard is a first version?

Hard. A tight MVP is about 6 weeks (5+ weeks), assuming the regulated or partner-gated parts are stubbed. The paid prompt turns that into tasks.

Who would pay, and how?

The audience is sysadmins. Charge a B2B subscription, and test a price between $50 and $199 a month. Willingness to pay is one input to Hotness, not a promise that someone will buy.

Can I use the evidence?

Yes. Build the product. The thread title is a short excerpt with a link, not a quote we are putting in someone's mouth. Exact post dates and verbatim lines are added only after a manual check. Ideas are suggestions, not medical, legal, or financial advice.

The sister site has the plan and the first month of distribution. Your credits work there too. Plan and growth prompts